Economists growing more upbeat about year ahead

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More and more economists, but careful, in the New Year and employment in the next few months are expected to milder growth optimists.
By the national enterprise economics association quarterly survey released Monday, half investigated economists expect real GDP in the United States - the production of all the value of goods and services - in 2013 growth between 2% and 4%. This is from 36% of respondents felt the same 3 months ago.
About half expected sluggish or negative performance, down to 65% in October.
December and January 8, and between the latest survey, ask 65 economists and others who used in workplace conditions in their company or industry economy. The survey found 34% of companies want to expand their employment in the next six months since last year, the highest proportion since April. At the same time, 2% of the respondents said they hope their companies through the layoffs cut employment, while 14% of people think that employment trim by natural wastage.
A quarter of respondents also said their companies in the fourth quarter employment growth, this is in the first half of 2012 level comparable. The same proportion also increase wages, in their company in the last three months of this year, up 10% from the last survey.
The overall stability of sales growth in the fourth quarter and the industry mixed results. For example, services, finance, insurance and real estate industry growth slowed, but rising transportation, water and electricity, information and communications.
, NABE investigation committee chairman and the economy in the national electrical manufacturers association President timothy gill points out, sales growth stability, although "a wide range of uncertainty of the potential influence of fiscal cliff."
"Fiscal cliff", it refers to the steep tax increases and spending cuts the effective January 1, unless the White House and congress reached an agreement, in order to avoid them. The survey found that 27% of people at least postpone some recruitment and capital spending in the quarterly results, and 72% of the people said, this problem does not affect the employment.
Despite the stable sales growth, respondents pointed out that in the fourth quarter profit margin deterioration, 25% said their profit increase, from 27% in October. Not enough is, 18% of the respondents profit margins decline, a 15% a year ago. In the next three years little more than a third of the said they expected the main not labor costs rise. This is from the last 43% of the survey.
Capital spending is expected in the next year, since the last survey weaken. Only 40% of the people expect their capital spending growth, 52% year-on-year drop.
For consumers, adjustable check shows, mild inflation may be in the works, two 5 respondents - in the past year the highest share - said they expected in coming months, the price rise. Think will increase is less than 5% of the respondents significantly raised prices than expected.

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